Strategic Foresight Information Architecture Systems Analysis
Project 05

Flashpoints.

A calm interface for the world's most volatile questions.

Geopolitical risk is drowning in noise — headlines, hot takes, dashboards of red. Flashpoints is a structured explorer for thinking clearly about instability: mapping the actors, pressures, and escalation pathways behind a crisis instead of just reacting to the latest alert.

RoleConcept, IA, product design, systems modeling
DisciplineStrategic foresight · risk tooling
Year2026
StatusConcept · prototype in progress
01 — Overview

Overview

Everyone has a feed of what just happened. Almost no one has a model of what happens next.

Analysts, journalists, and strategists all face the same problem: risk information arrives as a flood of disconnected events. A border incident here, a sanctions vote there, a supply-chain wobble somewhere else — each one urgent, none of them connected.

Flashpoints reframes the work. Instead of a faster news feed, it offers a slower, structured map: who the actors are, what pressures bind them, and which pathways turn a tension into a crisis. It is built to support judgment, not replace it — an instrument for thinking, not another alarm.

01
Actors
The states, blocs, and institutions in play, and their incentives.
02
Pressures
Economic, military, and domestic forces pushing on each actor.
03
Pathways
The plausible routes from stable tension to open conflict.
04
Signals
The observable indicators that a pathway is being taken.
02 — Scenario Explorer

Scenario Explorer

Concept · interface direction

Pick a flashpoint. Trace how it could unfold — and what you'd see first.

flashpoints.app / explorer / strait-tension
Active scenario
Actors · 6
Pressures
Pathways · 4
Signal watch
Briefing
Stability index
38.
Active pressures
7
Signals tripped
3
Pathway likelihood
Managed standoff54
Economic coercion71
Limited incident42
Open conflict18
Watch first: shipping-insurance premiums and reserve-currency flows — the quiet signals that move before the loud ones.
03 — Escalation Pathways

Escalation Pathways

From stable tension to open crisis

01

Baseline tension

Rhetoric and posturing within normal bounds. Markets calm, channels open. The default state most flashpoints sit in for years.

02

Signaling

Demonstrative moves — exercises, sanctions threats, recalled envoys. Each is reversible, but the cost of backing down begins to rise.

03

Coercion

Material pressure applied: blockades, cyber operations, economic strangulation. The conflict is now real, even if no shot is fired.

04

Limited incident

A localized clash — contested, deniable, dangerous. The moment where miscalculation does the most damage.

05

Open conflict

Sustained, declared hostilities. Rare, costly, and almost always preceded by signals the earlier stages made visible.

04 — Prototype

Interactive prototype

flashpoints.app / prototype
Prototype · Coming soon
A live scenario explorer is in development.
The interactive build will let you select a flashpoint, adjust pressures, and watch escalation likelihoods and signal watch-lists update in response.